Progress Grapher

Aimline: a straight line from the baseline to the goal at the goal week. The baseline is the median of the first three scores, placed at the middle of those weeks, so one low or high first probe doesn't set the pace. Turn that off to start from the first score.

Trend line: the median of the slopes between every pair of scores (Theil-Sen), so one unusual week can't swing it. The dotted part carries it to the goal week. If an ordinary least-squares line would disagree, the tool names the week pulling it.

Decision rules:

• Under six scores: the picture, no verdict.
• Six or more: four straight scores that beat the aimline mean set a tougher goal. Four straight that fall short mean change something.
• Otherwise the trend decides. Keeping pace with the aimline is on track. With six or seven scores, a flatter trend means watch closely. With eight or more, a flatter trend means change something, unless the gap is within one standard error of the slope, which is a close call.

Before changing the intervention: check that it happened as planned. Were sessions held, was the student there, were the steps followed? If so, change the intensity, the group size, or the intervention.

Direction: pick whether the goal is to increase or decrease. Every verdict is written in goal terms, so for office referrals, beating the aimline means fewer referrals.

Type x for a skipped week so the trend uses the real calendar. Use the same measure under the same conditions every week. These rules follow the four-point and trend-line rules used in data-based individualization; the National Center on Intensive Intervention explains that process.